Adaption and Mitigation to Climate Change

National Reports

Note: Peru’s report was in Spanish, Brazil was selected as a close surrounding area.

Brazil’s initial national communication to The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) base on the Ministry of Science and Technology is dated November 2004. The two interesting examples of efforts that Brazil is pursuing towards preparedness to adapt to future impacts of climate change are Anthropogenic Emissions and removal of greenhouse gases not controlled by the Montreal Protocol. There are several sectors that play a role in the greenhouse gases.  Energy Sector, Industrial Sector, agriculture sector, land-use change and forestry sector, waste sector, and solvents and other products used.

In the energy sector, all anthropogenic emissions from energy production, transformation, and consumption are estimated and include emissions resulting from fuel combustion and fugitive emission in the chain production, transformation, transmission, and consumption. (1)

 Estimates of greenhouse gas emissions in Brazil, in 1994 (1)

According to the report Brazil does not have commitments to reduce or limit its anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases, however, in spite of this there are still many programs in Brazil that result in a considerable reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and contribute to the ultimate objective of the UNFCCC.  Some of the initiatives are responsible for Brazil’s “Clean” energy mix. With low levels of greenhouse gas emissions. (1)

Adaption: Practices, options and constraints

The neatest thing I found about Peru’s region is the natural ecosystems and is that tropical countries in the region can reduce deforestation through adequate funding of programmes designed to enforce environmental legislation, support for economic alternatives to extensive forest clearing (including carbon crediting),which is a permit that allows the holder to emit one ton of carbon dioxide. Credits are awarded to countries or groups that have reduced their greenhouse gases below their emission quota. Carbon credits can be traded in the international market at their current market price, (2)  and building capacity in remote forest regions, as recently suggested in part of the Brazilian Amazon (Nepstad et al., 2002; Fearnside, 2003). Moreover, substantial amounts of forest can be saved in protected areas if adequate funding is available (Bruner et al., 2001; Pimm et al., 2001). (3) 

Kyoto Protocol

(4)

The Kyoto Protocol is an international agreement linked to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, which commits its Parties by setting internationally binding emission reduction targets.

Recognizing that developed countries are principally responsible for the current high levels of GHG emissions in the atmosphere as a result of more than 150 years of industrial activity, the Protocol places a heavier burden on developed nations under the principle of "common but differentiated responsibilities."

The Kyoto Protocol was adopted in Kyoto, Japan, on 11 December 1997 and entered into force on 16 February 2005. The detailed rules for the implementation of the Protocol were adopted at COP 7 in Marrakesh, Morocco, in 2001, and are referred to as the "Marrakesh Accords." Its first commitment period started in 2008 and ended in 2012. (4)

Kyoto, 11 December 1997

Entry into force: 16 February 2005, in accordance with article 25 (1) in accordance with article 25 (3) which reads as follows: "For each State or regional economic integration organization that ratifies, accepts or approves this Protocol or accedes thereto after the conditions set out in paragraph 1 above for entry into force have been fulfilled, this Protocol shall enter into force on the ninetieth day following the date of deposit of its instrument of ratification, acceptance, approval or accession.".

Registration: 16 February 2005, No. 30822.

Status: Signatories: 83. Parties: 192

Note: The Protocol was adopted at the third session of the Conference of the Parties to the 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (“the Convention”), held at Kyoto (Japan) from 1 to 11 December 1997. The Protocol shall be open for signature by States and regional economic integration organizations which are Parties to the Convention at United Nations Headquarters in New York from 16 March 1998 to 15 March 1999 in accordance with its article 24 (1).

 

Participant	Signature	Ratification Acceptance (A) Accession (a) Approval (AA)	Entry into force
PERU	13 Nov 1998	12 Sep 2002	16 Feb 2005

(5)

Countries effort towards mitigating Climate Change

According to the United Nations Environment Programme Climate Change Mitigation refers to efforts to reduce or prevent emission of greenhouse gases. Mitigation can mean using new technologies and renewable energies, making older equipment more energy efficient, or changing management practices or consumer behavior. It can be as complex as a plan for a new city, or as a simple as improvements to a cook stove design. Efforts underway around the world range from high-tech subway systems to bicycling paths and walkways. Protecting natural carbon sinks like forests and oceans, or creating new sinks through silviculture or green agriculture are also elements of mitigation. UNEP takes a multifaceted approach towards climate change mitigation in its efforts to help countries move towards a low-carbon society. (6) Halting deforestation, limiting transportation, decreasing agricultural waste and inefficiency including turning agriculture a brighter shade of green will not only ease pressure on the environment and help cope with climate change, but will also create opportunities to diversify economies, increase yields, reduce costs, and generate jobs and building are some of the way the regions (7) The damage from the rich countries have cause climate change across the world and adaption money at this point does not seem that it will be an aid and we can’t wait until 2010 when a comprehensive  international agreement on climate change goes into effect.

  

Mitigate or Adapt to climate change.

Since most of my data is not specific to Peru because it was in Spanish it is more specific to the region I can give an definite opinion on whether or not they should mitigate or adapt to climate change, but as an overall region I think they are doing what they can to contribute to the adaption of climate change whether parts of the region needs to adapt considering they have a “clean” report.

 Work Cited

1. http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/natc/brazilnc1e.pdf
2. http://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/carbon_credit.asp
3. http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/ch13s13-5.html
4. http://unfccc.int/kyoto_protocol/items/2830.php
5. http://unfccc.int/kyoto_protocol/status_of_ratification/items/2613.php
6. http://www.unep.org/climatechange/mitigation/
7. http://www.unep.org/climatechange/mitigation/Agriculture/tabid/104336/Default.aspx

Climate Change Impacts

Central and South America

Assessment of Projected Climate Change

According to the 2007 IPCC fourth assessment report all of Central and South American will likely warmed in the century.  It was predicted that precipitation would decrease in most of Central America where dry springs would be dryer. Precipitation  was predicted to increase in Tieera del Fuego during the winter and in the south-eastern South American during the summer.  (1)

 

IPPC report stated the it was uncertain how annual and seasonal mean rainfall would change over northern South America, including the Amazon forest. In some regions, there is qualitative consistency among the simulations (rainfall increasing in Ecuador and northern Peru, and decreasing at the northern tip of the continent and in southern northeast Brazil). (1)

 

Key Processes

The IPCC report states that the monsoon system is strongly influenced by El Niño/Southern Oscillation, ENSO and will induce complementary changes in the region.

Warm seasonal precipitation along with the South American Monsoon System dominated the mean seasonal cycle od precipitation in tropical and subtropical latitudes over South America. (1) 

 

The Mediterranean climate of much of Chile makes it sensitive to drying as a consequence of poleward expansion of the South Pacific subtropical high, in close analogy to other regions downstream of oceanic subtropical highs in the Southern Hemisphere (SH). South-eastern South America would experience an increase in precipitation from the same poleward storm track displacement. (1)

 

Temperature

The warming as simulated by the MMD-A1B projections increases approximately linearly with time during this century, but the magnitude of the change and the inter-model range are greater over CAM and AMZ than over SSA (See Figure 1) The annual mean warming under the A1B scenario between 1980 to 1999 and 2080 to 2099 varies in the CAM region from 1.8°C to 5.0°C, with half of the models within 2.6°C to 3.6°C and a median of 3.2°C. The corresponding numbers for AMZ are 1.8°C to 5.1°C, 2.6°C to 3.7°C and 3.3°C, and those for SSA 1.7°C to 3.9°C, 2.3°C to 3.1°C and 2.5°C (2)

 

 

Figure 1
 

Temperature anomalies with respect to 1901 to 1950 for three Central and South American land regions for 1906 to 2005 (black line) and as simulated (red envelope) by MMD models incorporating known forcings; and as projected for 2001 to 2100 by MMD models for the A1B scenario (orange envelope). The bars at the end of the orange envelope represent the range of projected changes for 2091 to 2100 for the B1 scenario (blue), the A1B scenario (orange) and the A2 scenario (red). The black line is dashed where observations are present for less than 50% of the area in the decade concerned. More details on the construction of these figures are given in Figure 3 (3)

 

 

The simulated warming is generally largest in the most continental regions, such as inner Amazonia and northern Mexico (See Figures 2) Seasonal variation in the regional area mean warming is relatively modest, except in CAM where there is a difference of 1°C in median values between DJF and MAM  (2)

Figure 2



 

Temperature and precipitation changes over Central and South America from the MMD-A1B simulations. Top row: Annual mean, DJF and JJA temperature change between 1980 to 1999 and 2080 to 2099, averaged over 21 models. Middle row: same as top, but for fractional change in precipitation. Bottom row: number of models out of 21 that project increases in precipitation. (4)

  

 Central and South America

Figure 3

 

IPCC 2007 Report’s Working Group II:  Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability

Latin America

 

By mid-century, increases in temperature and associated decreases in soil water are projected to lead to gradual replacement of tropical forest by savanna in eastern Amazonia. Semi-arid vegetation will tend to be replaced by arid-land vegetation. There is a risk of significant biodiversity loss through species extinction in many areas of tropical Latin America. (5) 

In drier areas, climate change is expected to lead to salinisation and desertification of agricultural land. Productivity of some important crops is projected to decrease and livestock productivity to decline, with adverse consequences for food security. In temperate zones soybean yields are projected to increase.(5) 

Sea-level rise is projected to cause increased risk of flooding in low-lying areas. Increases in sea surface temperature due to climate change are projected to have adverse effects on Mesoamerican coral reefs, and cause shifts in the location of south-east Pacific fish stocks. (5) 

 

Executive Summary

Latin America

 



 

Highly unusual extreme weather events were reported, such as intense Venezuelan rainfall (1999, 2005), flooding in the Argentinean Pampas (2000-2002), Amazon drought (2005), hail storms in Bolivia (2002) and the Great Buenos Aires area (2006), the unprecedented Hurricane Catarina in the South Atlantic (2004) and the record hurricane season of 2005 in the Caribbean Basin (6)

 

Increases in rainfall in south-east Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay, the Argentinean Pampas and some parts of Bolivia have had impacts on land use and crop yields, and have increased flood frequency and intensity. On the other hand, a declining trend in precipitation has been observed in southern Chile, south-west Argentina, southern Peru and western Central America. Increases in temperature of approximately 1°C in Mesoamerica and South America, and of 0.5°C in Brazil, were observed. As a consequence of temperature increases, the trend in glacier retreat reported in the Third Assessment Report is accelerating (very high confidence). This issue is critical in Bolivia, Peru, Colombia and Ecuador, where water availability has already been compromised either for consumption or for hydropower generation (6)

 

By the 2020s, the net increase in the number of people experiencing water stress due to climate change is likely to be between 7 and 77 million (medium confidence).

While, for the second half of the century, the potential water availability reduction and the increasing demand from an increasing regional population would increase these figures to between 60 and 150 million. (6)

 

Two extremely intense episodes of the El Niño phenomenon (1982/83 and 1997/98) and other severe climate extremes (EPA, 2001; Vincent et al., 2005; Haylock et al., 2006) have happened during this period, contributing greatly to the heightened vulnerability of human systems to natural disasters (floods, droughts, landslides, etc.). (7) Several components have added to the climate change including natural ecosystems, agriculture, water resources and human health.

 

I found the most interesting threat to Peru is the cereal crops and the lack of especially showing by 2020 but could reach 30% by 2080 under the warmer sceneriao causing many additional people at risk for hunger.  According to Warren hunger risk are likely to reach 5, 26 and 85 million in 2020, 2050 and 2080, respectively.  

 

 

 

"In many crops, rising carbon dioxide leads to increased plant growth," added Field via email. "Models that simulate increasing growth in the future typically include a positive effect of CO2 that is larger than the negative effect of warming, at least for warming of 2 degrees or less."  (8)

 

Credits:

 

(1) http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/ch11s11-6.html

(2) http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/ch11s11-6-3.html

(3) http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/figure-11-14.html

(4) http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/figure-11-15.html

(5) http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/spmsspm-c-11-latin-america.html

(6) http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/ch13s13-es.html

(7) http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/ch13s13-2-2.html

(8) http://news.mongabay.com/2007/0316-rice.html#ugxyLTDJ7lhOBcHQ.99

 

 



Peru's Contribution to Climate Change







FIGURE 1

In FIGURE 1 Peru's main source of CO2 Emissions is from liquids.  In the 1900's it began to admit CO2 in the atmosphere and from 1919 to 2010 it proceeded upward on a steady climb.  It wasn't until 1968 that other sources began so show itself continually and by 2003 there was a sudden spike in all sources.

The main source of Green House Gas (GHG) emissions in Peru is the conversion of forests and pastures, attributed to the deforestation of the Amazon for agricultural and animal husbandry purposes. Other factors that increase deforestation are urban development, infrastructure, communications, mining, oil and illegal coca plantations in the Amazon. (2)  

The second category of GHG total emissions in Peru is energy. In this case, emissions main source is transportation, caused by a low turnover of the fleet, poor driven-cars practices, inadequate traffic laws and lack of maintenance of vehicles.  It is very common to find in the streets of Lima, junk cars on the road from 1980’s that generate a lot of smoke into the environment. (2) 

The third category that contributes to total national GHG emissions is represented by agriculture, with a major source in fermentation. Due to the short work of genetic improvements and productivity of livestock, Peru needs more animals to meet the demand, and that generates more emissions. (2) 

Finally, landfills, solid waste dumps and a bad treatment of wastewater are an important source of GHG (5,7%) in Peru. (2)

FIGURE 2




In FIGURE 2 Peru's per capita in 2010 is 0.54 metric tons of carbon per person compared to the United States' 4.71 metric tons of carbon per person which is 11% of what the united states emits. Peru had a significant peak around 1950's. with a jump up 0.16  metric tons of carbon per person.  Peru's rank based on per capita CO2 Emissions is #127, compared to the United States' rank of #12.  In my opinion I am very proud of the low amount of CO2 Emissions.  

 

 

FIGURE 3 - Data obtained from CDIAC September 26, 2013

According to FIGURE 3 per has no significant input to thousands of metric tons of carbon compared to the other countries with China leading the pack in 2010 followed by the united states.

 

Carbon dioxide has an continual steady climb and In the year 2010 the biggest emitter of carbon dioxide is United States',  with a number of 1,481,608  thousand metric tons of carbon.  This record obtained from the U.S. Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) (1),  is compared to the other countries as the following:

 

China 2,259,856

 

India 547,811

 

Italy 110,801

 

Peru 15,702

 

Kenya 3,368

 

(Note that a Chinese citizen is more at fault to emitting CO2 )

   

The United States’ has contributed the most CO₂ emissions to the climate with a whopping number of 4,225,770 thousand metric tons of carbon from the year 1900 to 2010.  This was really not as surprising to me as compared to Peru, whose numbers are 394,983 thousand metric tons of carbon (.09% compared to the United States)which is almost 238 times less . But compared to the population and the industry of the United States’ it is not a surprise to me.

 

The other countries cumulative contribution to the climate are as follows:

China 36,152,087 (8.56% compared to the United States)

India 10,229,326 (2.42% compared to the United States)

Italy 5,579,562 (1.32% compared to the United States)

Kenya 86,840 (.02% compared to the United States)


FIGURE 4 - Data generated September 26, 2013



FIGURE 5

When comparing FIGURE 4 to FIGURE 5 the graph grows on an upward trend from 1900 to 2010.  Carbon emissions are different than carbon dioxide concentrations which occurs naturally and it is a gas at normal temperatures and plays a very important part in photosynthesis.  Carbon dioxide are emitted by humans and animals when they breath. It is also a byproduct of burning of fossil fuels such as petroleum and coal.  (3)  

 

Sources:
 

(1) http://cdiac.ornl.gov/
(2) http://www.eoi.es/blogs/ianamalaga/2012/02/05/climate-change-and-low-carbon-economy-perus-main-sources-of-ghg/
(3) http://www.ehow.com/info_8583118_differences-carbon-carbon-dioxide-oxygen.html#ixzz2i2MowHcZ